Around the second inspection of Daqin Line during the year, the coal-fired power market is forming a new pattern.
The reporter learned that after entering the week of September 26th, the coal port of Qinhuangdao Port once fell by nearly 30% year-on-year, and the number of days of coal storage at the six major power plants also decreased by 3.8% on average. The number of days of coal stored by Yudean even forced coal deposits. The cordon dropped to about 8 days, a drop of 16%.
Not only that, after entering September, the stable coal market broke the steady state of the enterprise many times and appeared to rise. From September 7 to 27, the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has risen by RMB 7/t. Moreover, the price of coal pits in many areas in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has also risen to some extent.
In this regard, experts said that with the completion of the maintenance of the Daqin Line, the purchase of coal from the power plant will have a concentration effect, and will form a period of tight transport capacity, which will lift the coal market price. If this situation cannot be contained in November, the peak period of winter electricity consumption , "electricity shortage" or to reproduce again.
Tightening of production, sales and transportation from the port center of the Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Network indicates that as of September 28, Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventories fell below 5 million tons and fell to a inventory level of 4.976 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5%, of which domestically produced 4.904 million tons. 7.2 million tons of foreign trade is the lowest since May 5 this year.
Just four days ago, Qinhuangdao Port had more than 600 tons of coal deposits. Nine days ago, Qinhuangdao Port had a coal inventory of 7.088 million tons. In 10 days, coal inventory at the Qinhuangdao Port fell by 2.121 million tons, with an average daily decline of around 5%. .
According to relevant personnel of the port, the sharp decline in the inventory of the port was mainly due to the substantial reduction in the volume of imports, while at the same time the amount of reloading remained strong.
Regarding the drastic reduction in the volume of imports, the source stated that one of the reasons was the maintenance of the Daqin Line that started on September 21, which affected the amount of coal imports to a certain extent. At the same time, there was no doubt that a flooding accident occurred in China Coal Jinhai Group’s Yuanbaowan Coal Mine. Adding to the frost.
The Datong-Qinhuangdao Line is an important passage for the north-south coal transportation. When it is overhauled twice a year, the railway transportation will “open the skylight†at this stage, and the corresponding coal transportation capacity will decline. The data show that since the inspection of the Daqing-Qinhuangdao Line, daily average coal transportation has reached 950,000. Tons, about 300,000 tons less than before maintenance, a drop of 24%. The port-to-vehicle volume, unloading volume and volume of imports also all dropped significantly. Among them, the average daily coal supply at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by as much as 170,000 tons.
The change in the production of pits has also greatly reduced the amount of coal imported. It is understood that after the coal accident, the Shanxi Provincial Government requested that China Coal Group shut down all its wells in Shanxi, and all integrated coal mines in Shuozhou should be shut down.
According to the statistics, 97% of the output of China Coal Group in Shanxi Province is concentrated in the Quzhou area, and 75% of the coal production in the Quzhou area comes from the China Coal Group, so this accident made the production capacity of the China Coal Group and the Quzhou Region greatly affected. influences.
According to the reporter's visit, the accident is expected to suspend production and rectification will continue for more than 20 days, and this also makes the resources around Zhangzhou and Datong tight supply, coal supply has decreased.
At the same time, the suspension of production and rectification has affected the supply of coal to a large extent, and pit prices in some areas have increased. For example, in the previous period, coal production capacity in the Datong Cangzhou region in northern Shanxi was not completely released after resource integration, which also made current coal available. The supply is tight. However, the price of coal pits, mainly in Ordos and other regions of Inner Mongolia, has recently risen to some extent.
The increase in the price of the pits at the same time led to a rise in the freight rate from the port to the container terminal. Affected by this, at the same time as the volume of port transfers was reduced, the coal market price also followed up accordingly, and the power plant's winter deposit and deposit were also affected.
According to the latest statistics from the Qinhuangdao Coal Shipping Network Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index Center, during the week of September 21-27, the comprehensive average price of thermal coal for the 5,500-kilowatt calorific value of ports in the Bohai Rim region was closed at 832 yuan/ton, which was higher than the previous one. The reporting period has increased by RMB 3/t, which is a slight increase after the coal price stabilized in September. Especially since September 7th, the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has risen by 7 Yuan / ton.
If the calculations are the same, the reporter found that the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port last year was about 715 yuan/ton, and this year the quotation was about 835 yuan, an increase of 120 yuan year-on-year, or an increase of 17%.
The rise in coal prices has directly affected the enthusiasm and cost budget for coal storage in power plants. Through the inventory and coal storage days of the six major power plants from September 17 to 23, it can be seen that thermal power companies have shown signs of early storage of winter coal this year compared with the beginning of purchasing stored winter coal in October of the previous year.
During the week, the amount of reclaimed coal from Qinhuangdao and other ports increased significantly. Moreover, inventory of the six major power plants increased slightly. According to Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Port Center, as of September 23, the inventory of six major power plants was 3.0681 million tons. Increased by 3.57%.
However, the reporter also found that the stocks of Yudean, Shangdian, and Guodian have declined by a certain margin, dropping by 10.89%, 4.31%, and 1.75% respectively. As for the coal storage days, the three major power plants decreased by 15.96%, 4.19%, and 11.64%, of which Yudean's coal storage days only lasted for about 8 days, which was lower than the 10-day coal deposit warning line.
"Between the Daqin Line and the port, the pressure on the three major powers, especially the power supply of Yudean, will increase sharply in the next two weeks, and the coal deposits of power plants will be tightened as a whole." Lin Boqiang, Director of Energy Economics Research Center, Xiamen University, observes the economy The reporter said that with the completion of the inspection of the Daqin Line, the purchase of coal from the power plant or the formation of a concentration effect will result in a period of tight transportation capacity, which will once again lift the coal market price. If this situation cannot be contained in November, the peak period of winter electricity consumption, The "electricity shortage" may be reproduced again.
It is understood that the maintenance period of the Daqin Line is 3 hours, which is one hour less than that of the previous April. However, the amount of transfer is smaller than that of April. According to the data, the daily load of Qinhuangdao on the three-hour-a-day overhaul reduced the average daily coal consumption by about 150,000 tons.
“This shows that there has been a problem with the source of supply, and the reduction in upstream production capacity has had a greater impact on the volume of coal port inflows,†said the relevant port person.
According to this source, the port recently visited the southern power plants and the South China Huanan area. The current situation is that the orders for SMEs in the South have been greatly reduced. However, it cannot be concluded that the demand for electricity in the winter will be weakened. Will this happen? Breaking the 9% growth in electricity consumption in the country since August has continued to be high and will be known in November.
“November is the time when southern SME orders are concentrated, and due to the reduction of industrial energy consumption caused by power cuts in summer peaks, it may also be caused by a concentration of outbreaks at the end of the year, raising the growth rate of electricity use.†The source said that it is very likely that a new peak of electricity will be formed at that time, which will stimulate the new round of market for coal and electricity.
In response, Lin Boqiang also stated that whether there is a "electricity shortage" will depend on the policy efforts in the past two months. "This year's GDP growth rate will remain at around 9%. The annual growth in electricity consumption will not be unexpectedly at around 10%. However, if electricity is released after November, the restrictions on power cuts will be lifted and new ones will likely emerge. The peak of electricity consumption, coupled with the high coal prices, is not conducive to the plant's enthusiasm, which will result in a large-scale shortage of electricity during the year."
And Wei Weiping, deputy director of the National Energy Administration's Power Division, said on September 29th at the "summer meeting for peak summer meeting" that the current power supply and demand situation in the winter and next spring is not optimistic. In some parts of the country, electricity supply will still face varying degrees of tight supply. In particular, the areas with a large proportion of hydropower in the South and China, as well as some coal-producing provinces with low on-grid electricity prices, may experience persistent power shortages. “Taking into account the uncertainties of the winter climate, some parts of the country will still face a tight supply situation with different degrees of power supply.†Hao Weiping believes that the current adjustable water power and energy storage value of major hydropower stations are reduced by 3 to 40% compared with the same period of last year. The water supply is limited, and it is difficult to change the output of hydropower in winter than in normal years.
The data shows that as of the end of August, the national electricity consumption reached 3.12 trillion kWh, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year. Among them, the total electricity consumption in the three months of June, July and August in summer peaked at 1.27 trillion kWh, an increase of 11.2% over the same period of last year. According to the forecast, the Energy Bureau stated that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the fourth quarter of this year may be slightly lower than that in the first half of the year, but it will still maintain a high level.
“But in September and early October in summer, coal demand growth will decline, and supply and demand will ease.†Wei Pengyuan, deputy director of the Coal Department of the National Energy Administration, said recently that especially after mid-October, coal users will Coal was purchased ahead of schedule to prepare for the peak winter season and coal demand turned prosperous. However, with the completion and commissioning of a large number of large and medium-sized modern coal mines, coal supply will increase. With the gradual resumption of production of coal mines with mergers and reorganizations and resource integration, the country’s coal supply capacity has significantly increased in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the overall supply and demand of coal in the country will be basically balanced.
The reporter learned that after entering the week of September 26th, the coal port of Qinhuangdao Port once fell by nearly 30% year-on-year, and the number of days of coal storage at the six major power plants also decreased by 3.8% on average. The number of days of coal stored by Yudean even forced coal deposits. The cordon dropped to about 8 days, a drop of 16%.
Not only that, after entering September, the stable coal market broke the steady state of the enterprise many times and appeared to rise. From September 7 to 27, the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has risen by RMB 7/t. Moreover, the price of coal pits in many areas in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia has also risen to some extent.
In this regard, experts said that with the completion of the maintenance of the Daqin Line, the purchase of coal from the power plant will have a concentration effect, and will form a period of tight transport capacity, which will lift the coal market price. If this situation cannot be contained in November, the peak period of winter electricity consumption , "electricity shortage" or to reproduce again.
Tightening of production, sales and transportation from the port center of the Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Network indicates that as of September 28, Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventories fell below 5 million tons and fell to a inventory level of 4.976 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.5%, of which domestically produced 4.904 million tons. 7.2 million tons of foreign trade is the lowest since May 5 this year.
Just four days ago, Qinhuangdao Port had more than 600 tons of coal deposits. Nine days ago, Qinhuangdao Port had a coal inventory of 7.088 million tons. In 10 days, coal inventory at the Qinhuangdao Port fell by 2.121 million tons, with an average daily decline of around 5%. .
According to relevant personnel of the port, the sharp decline in the inventory of the port was mainly due to the substantial reduction in the volume of imports, while at the same time the amount of reloading remained strong.
Regarding the drastic reduction in the volume of imports, the source stated that one of the reasons was the maintenance of the Daqin Line that started on September 21, which affected the amount of coal imports to a certain extent. At the same time, there was no doubt that a flooding accident occurred in China Coal Jinhai Group’s Yuanbaowan Coal Mine. Adding to the frost.
The Datong-Qinhuangdao Line is an important passage for the north-south coal transportation. When it is overhauled twice a year, the railway transportation will “open the skylight†at this stage, and the corresponding coal transportation capacity will decline. The data show that since the inspection of the Daqing-Qinhuangdao Line, daily average coal transportation has reached 950,000. Tons, about 300,000 tons less than before maintenance, a drop of 24%. The port-to-vehicle volume, unloading volume and volume of imports also all dropped significantly. Among them, the average daily coal supply at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by as much as 170,000 tons.
The change in the production of pits has also greatly reduced the amount of coal imported. It is understood that after the coal accident, the Shanxi Provincial Government requested that China Coal Group shut down all its wells in Shanxi, and all integrated coal mines in Shuozhou should be shut down.
According to the statistics, 97% of the output of China Coal Group in Shanxi Province is concentrated in the Quzhou area, and 75% of the coal production in the Quzhou area comes from the China Coal Group, so this accident made the production capacity of the China Coal Group and the Quzhou Region greatly affected. influences.
According to the reporter's visit, the accident is expected to suspend production and rectification will continue for more than 20 days, and this also makes the resources around Zhangzhou and Datong tight supply, coal supply has decreased.
At the same time, the suspension of production and rectification has affected the supply of coal to a large extent, and pit prices in some areas have increased. For example, in the previous period, coal production capacity in the Datong Cangzhou region in northern Shanxi was not completely released after resource integration, which also made current coal available. The supply is tight. However, the price of coal pits, mainly in Ordos and other regions of Inner Mongolia, has recently risen to some extent.
The increase in the price of the pits at the same time led to a rise in the freight rate from the port to the container terminal. Affected by this, at the same time as the volume of port transfers was reduced, the coal market price also followed up accordingly, and the power plant's winter deposit and deposit were also affected.
According to the latest statistics from the Qinhuangdao Coal Shipping Network Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index Center, during the week of September 21-27, the comprehensive average price of thermal coal for the 5,500-kilowatt calorific value of ports in the Bohai Rim region was closed at 832 yuan/ton, which was higher than the previous one. The reporting period has increased by RMB 3/t, which is a slight increase after the coal price stabilized in September. Especially since September 7th, the average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim has risen by 7 Yuan / ton.
If the calculations are the same, the reporter found that the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port last year was about 715 yuan/ton, and this year the quotation was about 835 yuan, an increase of 120 yuan year-on-year, or an increase of 17%.
The rise in coal prices has directly affected the enthusiasm and cost budget for coal storage in power plants. Through the inventory and coal storage days of the six major power plants from September 17 to 23, it can be seen that thermal power companies have shown signs of early storage of winter coal this year compared with the beginning of purchasing stored winter coal in October of the previous year.
During the week, the amount of reclaimed coal from Qinhuangdao and other ports increased significantly. Moreover, inventory of the six major power plants increased slightly. According to Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Port Center, as of September 23, the inventory of six major power plants was 3.0681 million tons. Increased by 3.57%.
However, the reporter also found that the stocks of Yudean, Shangdian, and Guodian have declined by a certain margin, dropping by 10.89%, 4.31%, and 1.75% respectively. As for the coal storage days, the three major power plants decreased by 15.96%, 4.19%, and 11.64%, of which Yudean's coal storage days only lasted for about 8 days, which was lower than the 10-day coal deposit warning line.
"Between the Daqin Line and the port, the pressure on the three major powers, especially the power supply of Yudean, will increase sharply in the next two weeks, and the coal deposits of power plants will be tightened as a whole." Lin Boqiang, Director of Energy Economics Research Center, Xiamen University, observes the economy The reporter said that with the completion of the inspection of the Daqin Line, the purchase of coal from the power plant or the formation of a concentration effect will result in a period of tight transportation capacity, which will once again lift the coal market price. If this situation cannot be contained in November, the peak period of winter electricity consumption, The "electricity shortage" may be reproduced again.
It is understood that the maintenance period of the Daqin Line is 3 hours, which is one hour less than that of the previous April. However, the amount of transfer is smaller than that of April. According to the data, the daily load of Qinhuangdao on the three-hour-a-day overhaul reduced the average daily coal consumption by about 150,000 tons.
“This shows that there has been a problem with the source of supply, and the reduction in upstream production capacity has had a greater impact on the volume of coal port inflows,†said the relevant port person.
According to this source, the port recently visited the southern power plants and the South China Huanan area. The current situation is that the orders for SMEs in the South have been greatly reduced. However, it cannot be concluded that the demand for electricity in the winter will be weakened. Will this happen? Breaking the 9% growth in electricity consumption in the country since August has continued to be high and will be known in November.
“November is the time when southern SME orders are concentrated, and due to the reduction of industrial energy consumption caused by power cuts in summer peaks, it may also be caused by a concentration of outbreaks at the end of the year, raising the growth rate of electricity use.†The source said that it is very likely that a new peak of electricity will be formed at that time, which will stimulate the new round of market for coal and electricity.
In response, Lin Boqiang also stated that whether there is a "electricity shortage" will depend on the policy efforts in the past two months. "This year's GDP growth rate will remain at around 9%. The annual growth in electricity consumption will not be unexpectedly at around 10%. However, if electricity is released after November, the restrictions on power cuts will be lifted and new ones will likely emerge. The peak of electricity consumption, coupled with the high coal prices, is not conducive to the plant's enthusiasm, which will result in a large-scale shortage of electricity during the year."
And Wei Weiping, deputy director of the National Energy Administration's Power Division, said on September 29th at the "summer meeting for peak summer meeting" that the current power supply and demand situation in the winter and next spring is not optimistic. In some parts of the country, electricity supply will still face varying degrees of tight supply. In particular, the areas with a large proportion of hydropower in the South and China, as well as some coal-producing provinces with low on-grid electricity prices, may experience persistent power shortages. “Taking into account the uncertainties of the winter climate, some parts of the country will still face a tight supply situation with different degrees of power supply.†Hao Weiping believes that the current adjustable water power and energy storage value of major hydropower stations are reduced by 3 to 40% compared with the same period of last year. The water supply is limited, and it is difficult to change the output of hydropower in winter than in normal years.
The data shows that as of the end of August, the national electricity consumption reached 3.12 trillion kWh, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year. Among them, the total electricity consumption in the three months of June, July and August in summer peaked at 1.27 trillion kWh, an increase of 11.2% over the same period of last year. According to the forecast, the Energy Bureau stated that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the fourth quarter of this year may be slightly lower than that in the first half of the year, but it will still maintain a high level.
“But in September and early October in summer, coal demand growth will decline, and supply and demand will ease.†Wei Pengyuan, deputy director of the Coal Department of the National Energy Administration, said recently that especially after mid-October, coal users will Coal was purchased ahead of schedule to prepare for the peak winter season and coal demand turned prosperous. However, with the completion and commissioning of a large number of large and medium-sized modern coal mines, coal supply will increase. With the gradual resumption of production of coal mines with mergers and reorganizations and resource integration, the country’s coal supply capacity has significantly increased in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the overall supply and demand of coal in the country will be basically balanced.
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